The new era
Work is being taken off men faster than purpose is being offered to them.
That is the whole of the argument, and it is a statement about now rather than a prediction about later.
What this page will not do
It will not tell you which jobs go, what proportion of any work is automated, which trades survive, or when any of it happens. No number, no date, no ranking. James has watched an industry flattened and rebuilt by wars, recessions, a financial crisis, a pandemic and new technology, and nobody who gave him a number was right about it.
Why it lands as a work problem
When the structure goes, a man reaches for another structure of the same shape. Another role, another title, another diary that fills itself. It is the obvious move and often the right one.
But some of what he lost was not the salary. It was being expected somewhere on a Tuesday. That part does not come back with a job offer, and it does not wait for one either.
What is genuinely different
Men have always been made redundant, and men have always retired. What is different is the number of capable men who will have capacity, health and decades left, at the same time, with no institution asking for any of it.
Previous generations had the institutions whether they wanted them or not — the church, the union, the club, the regiment, the works team. Those were not better times, but they did come with somewhere a man's hours were expected. Most of that has gone and nothing has replaced it.
Why time, and not money
Money is the easier thing for a man in this position to give, which is precisely why it does less for him. It leaves an account. Nothing about his week changes.
Hours are different. They have to be got out of bed for, they are visible, and somebody notices when they do not arrive. That is not a moral point about generosity. It is a practical point about what fills a week.
Nothing here says you should give money, or that giving money is a lesser act. What you do with your money is your business and a matter for your own advisers.
Moving before you have to
The man who works this out while he still has a job has the easier version of it, because he is choosing rather than filling a hole. He also tends to pick better, since he is not taking the first thing that will have him.